FlexMeasures / flexmeasures / 37825881672

87%

push

github

fix: take a regressor's belief as realized by its sensor's knowledge horizon (#2692)

* Count an instantaneous regressor's reading as realized from the instant it describes

The forecaster counted a regressor's belief as realized only when recorded after its event's start.
An instantaneous sensor's measurement is typically recorded at the instant it describes,
so a regular instantaneous past regressor reached the model without any data.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01B1NrAQfNXGbXNMoycCvorh
Signed-off-by: F.N. Claessen <claessen@seita.nl>

* Changelog: instantaneous regressors' readings count as realized

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01B1NrAQfNXGbXNMoycCvorh
Signed-off-by: F.N. Claessen <claessen@seita.nl>

* Take a regressor's belief as realized by its sensor's knowledge horizon

The forecaster took a belief as realized once it was recorded after its event started,
while timely-beliefs anchors knowledge to the knowledge time that a sensor's knowledge horizon sets (by default, the event's end).
So beliefs recorded halfway through an event counted as realized,
and the past readings of day-ahead prices (known the day before) never did.
Beliefs are now flagged by their belief horizon when they are loaded, before their event starts are floored onto the target's slots,
which replaces the special case for instantaneous regressors.
Beliefs known by a forecast's belief time are all used for the events after the training window, realized or not.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Signed-off-by: F.N. Claessen <claessen@seita.nl>

---------

Signed-off-by: F.N. Claessen <claessen@seita.nl>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

19 of 19 new or added lines in 1 file covered. (100.0%)

21279 of 24581 relevant lines covered (86.57%)

0.87 hits per line