elastic / cloudbeat / 28796306233
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fix: make version bump scripts idempotent on retrigger (#7184)

## Summary

Raised by Julien in
[#mission-control](https://elastic.slack.com/archives/C0JFN9HJL/p1783094800245129):
retriggering the centralized version bump pipeline for an
already-completed bump (9.4.4 / 9.3.8 / 8.19.19) failed instead of
succeeding as a no-op.

**Root cause:** `pr_exists()` only checks for *open* PRs. Once the
original bump PR merges, a retrigger sails past that guard,
`update_version_beat` correctly finds no diff and skips the commit, but
the script then unconditionally tries to push and `gh pr create` anyway.
A branch identical to its base has nothing to open a PR with, so GitHub
rejects it with "No commits between X and Y" and the script exits
non-zero.

Confirmed against the real repo state (`9.4`/`9.3`/`8.19` are already at
the reported versions, and their bump PRs are already merged) that this
is exactly the failure condition.

- Add a shared `no_new_commits()` helper to `common.sh`
- Use it in `bump-patch.sh` and `bump-minor.sh` to skip push/PR creation
cleanly (exit 0) when there's nothing to bump

## Test plan

- [x] Reproduced Julien's exact scenario for `9.4`→`9.4.4`,
`9.3`→`9.3.8`, `8.19`→`8.19.19` against the real branches — all three
now exit 0 with "already at X — nothing to bump" instead of failing
- [x] Verified a genuine new patch version (e.g. `9.4`→`9.4.5`) still
produces a commit and PR as before

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Co-authored-by: Cloud Security Machine <cloudsecmachine@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>

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