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ci: address follow-up Copilot review

- Hard-fail the cd.yml dispatch step on error (was emitting a warning
  while reporting success).
- Use matching-refs in create_tag so transient API failures aren't
  read as "tag absent".
- Build the release tree from `git status` partitions so additions,
  deletions, and modifications round-trip correctly.
- Detect cd.yml in-flight via the runs API instead of `gh run list
  --branch`, and skip dispatch only if a GitHub Release already exists
  or a run is still active — cancelled/failed runs are now retried.
- Clarify the "no file changes" error with operator guidance.
- Check that git is installed in release.sh.